The demand for global oil is anticipated to rise to almost 104 million barrels a day in 2025, which is a rise from almost 830,000 barrels per day growth that was witnessed in 2024, says the International Energy Agency.
Asia is forecasted to account for 60% of this demand increase and, without a surprise, happens to be led by China. According to the IEA, the demand from Asia especially in China is going to be driven totally by petrochemical feedstocks and also by refined fuel demand stagnating.
Apparently, the global supply of oil saw an increase of 240 kilobarrels per day (kb/d) in February 2025 and reached 103 mb/d. This was driven primarily due to Kazakhstan’s output of OPEC+, which reached an all-time high because of the Tengiz field expansion. Apart from this, Iran and Venezuela also pushed their production ahead of the tighter sanctions.
It is well to be noted that the growth estimates when it comes to the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 have already been revised to 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) YoY because of lower-than-anticipated delivery data as well as macroeconomic uncertainty. The IEA went on to note that the recent data pertaining to oil demand happens to have underperformed in developing as well as advanced markets.
Non-OPEC+ production is anticipated to see an increase by 1.5 mb/d in 2025. The US, Canada, Brazil, and also Guyana happen to be contributing most when it comes to the supply, with the US producing at an all-time high. The fresh US tariffs on Mexico as well as Canada, w.e.f. from April 1, may as well see an impact on the flow as well as prices. Apparently, Canada and also Mexico comprised almost 70% of the US crude imports in 2023.
It is worth noting that the OPEC+ production could very well see stability in 2025 if the voluntary cuts happen to extend beyond April. The fact is that the actual supply rise from the unwinding cuts may as well be less than the minimal 138 kb/d, as just Saudi Arabia and Algeria happen to have the capabilities to raise the output.
IEA estimates say that other members happened to exceed their targets by 1.2 mb/d in February 2025.
Notably, the global crude runs slashed by 570 kb/d MoM in February 2025 to 82.8 mb/d, thereby continuing the fall from last December’s five-year high of 84.3 mb/d. It is forecasted to average almost 83 mb/d in 2025. Interestingly, the refining margins have recovered as the crude prices have gone on to see a dip.
Demand for global oil exceeded supply, leading to a drawdown of 40.5 million barrels from stocks in January 2025. Non-OECD crude investors went on to see a slump of 45.3 mb/d, whereas the OECD stocks gained momentum by 11.2 mb, which includes a 25 mb growth when it comes to the industry’s crude stocks. Oil on water saw a dip of 6.7 mb in January 2025, but it did observe a rebound in February. The prices of crude oil dipped by almost US$ 7 per barrel in February 2025 and also early March. ICE Brent futures saw a drop of US$ 11 a barrel throughout 8 weeks and is trading at almost US$ 70 a barrel. As per the IEA, global oil demand may exceed supply by 600 kb/d in 2025, potentially tightening the market. If OPEC continues to ensure to unwind the output cuts without any kind of overproduction addressing, another 400 kb/d can as well get added into the market.
