Natural gas saw a dip on December 12, 2025, to a new retracement low of $4.07, precisely tagging a 50-day average and also rising to top channel confluence for the very first time since October 2025 while at the same time breaching November’s $4.09 low and also threatening a monthly bearish reversal.
November 12, 2025 – A Sharp Test of Support
Apparently, natural gas went on to extend its decline on December 12, 2025, to a fresh retracement low of $4.07, thereby marking the fifth consecutive session when it comes to lower daily highs as well as lows. The drop sliced through the previous potential support zone at $4.15, which was a former June swing high resistance, and also landed directly on the 50-day average that was joined by the growing top channel line, which, by the way, in the past has acted as both resistance as well as support on separate touches.
Seller Control Is Still There
In spite of arriving at this major confluence, sellers still remain in clear control at writing with price, which has been pinned near session lows. This keeps the December 12 $4.07 low vulnerable heading into the fresh week until and unless a meaningful intraday rally goes on to emerge before the close, which is at present showing no signs in terms of materializing, although the prominence of the 50-day line still leaves room for a potential hold.
The First 50-Day Test Since the Reclaim
The 50-day average had been decisively reclaimed in October 2025 and has not been revisited as a support since. December 12, 2025, goes on to mark the first touch in that span, thereby making a defensive buyer response completely normal and anticipated behavior. The low also went on to reach the lower Bollinger Band, adding yet another classic oversold marker, which often goes ahead and precedes at least short-term relief.
Downside Contingency That’s Deeper
A decisive dip through the December 12, 2025 low would also confirm a continued weakness and target the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near to $3.89, although that level lacks a strong confluence and is hence suspect as a final floor. A clean break there is going to quickly expose the 200-day average at $3.58 as being the next major downside target.
Monthly Reversal Risk Growing
Since July 2025’s $2.62 swing low, natural gas has gone on to post three straight months of higher highs as well as lows, thereby defining a monthly uptrend that looks pretty clear. December 2025, notably, delivered a new higher high at $5.50 before the present sharp retracement. The December 12 brief breach of the November $4.09 low is now being actively tested and has raised the odds of a one-month bearish reversal, having a weekly or monthly close below confirming the pattern along with its bearish implications.
Perspective to watch for
The fact is that natural gas has arrived at its highest-probability bounce zone with the 50-day average and channel line, as well as November’s low – all of which have converged near $4.07–$4.09. A defense that is strong indeed fits the historical behavior and could as well spark a tradeable relief rally, and a failure and close below $4.09 would trigger a monthly reversal and also open a fast move to $3.89 and hence the 200-day at $3.58.
