The UAE oil output is expected to move beyond the 5 million barrels per day (bpd) threshold in 2027 following the country’s departure from OPEC, positioning the United Arab Emirates as a significant contributor to non-OPEC+ supply growth, according to a statement made by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on 17th June 2026.
The country’s decision to leave OPEC, announced earlier in 2026, was driven by a strategy focused on expanding production capacity and maximizing the value of its hydrocarbon resources. The move removes production restrictions previously associated with the group’s quota system and supports a broader production growth agenda.
According to the IEA, total UAE oil output is forecast to climb to 5.2 million bpd in 2027, representing an increase of 730,000 bpd compared with the previous year. The agency noted that the country’s crude production capacity has undergone substantial growth over the past decade, rising from 3.1 million bpd in 2016 to nearly 4.4 million bpd by 2026. In addition, the United Arab Emirates has developed approximately 1.1 million bpd of condensate and natural gas liquids capacity. The IEA said these figures highlight Abu Dhabi’s long-term commitment to expansion plans.
The growth strategy is also being reinforced through major investment plans. Last month, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) announced that it would award 200 billion dirhams ($55 billion) in projects for 2026-2028 as part of efforts to accelerate expansion and implement its broader strategy. The company has also outlined plans for $150 billion in capital investments between 2026-2030.
At the same time, export flows have remained steady despite disruption linked to the Iran war. The IEA said the resilience of exports has been supported by infrastructure assets including the 1.8 million bpd Habshan-Fujairah pipeline and 42 million barrels of storage at Fujairah.
Recent export and production figures show shipments increased in May 2026, with total exports rising by 260,000 bpd month-on-month to 3.1 million bpd. During the same period, UAE oil output in crude terms reached 2.8 million bpd, although this remained around 835,000 bpd below pre-conflict levels, according to the agency. The IEA added that the increase was supported by a rise in “dark” activity, with tankers undertaking more voyages along the Omani coastline while operating with their transponders switched off.
Looking ahead, ADNOC said it is accelerating construction of a new West-East pipeline designed to double Fujairah export capacity and provide an alternative route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. The project is already about 50% complete and is scheduled for delivery in 2027.
