Amidst escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have significantly impacted global oil availability, Africa is increasingly being recognized as a critical region to address the resulting supply deficit. Africa’s 10 million barrels per day (bpd) supply potential was highlighted by Mrs. Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), during the Africa Energy Forum at the Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) in Houston, Texas.
Eyesan emphasized that Africa’s substantial hydrocarbon reserves, estimated at 125 billion barrels of oil and 625 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, positions it as a vital player in global energy discussions. These reserves represent approximately 10 percent of the world’s total.
Eyesan said, “Today, we believe that about 10 million barrels have been taken off the market in a situation where you had a slight oversupply at one time. With 10 million off the market, there’s a huge deficit. The question on everybody’s lips is where this deficit will come from. Or rather, who will fill the gap?”
“Let’s x-ray the North Sea. The North Sea was prolific in the past but is declining. North America, same story. And if you layer Asia on that, it’s all decline. However, the only continent that is showing promise today is no other than Africa”, she added.
Nigeria, in particular, is leveraging regulatory reform, spearheaded by the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) enacted in 2021, to revitalize its upstream, midstream, and downstream oil and gas sectors. This legislative framework has introduced fiscal clarity, enhanced regulatory efficiency, provided contract certainty, and fostered transparency, contributing to a resurgence in Nigeria’s petroleum industry. The PIA has been instrumental in creating the opportunities available today, signaling a rebirth in the sector.
The impact of the PIA is already observable in investment trends. Before its enactment, annual upstream investment in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry, which once comfortably stood at $15 billion, had declined to less than $7 billion. In contrast, recent years have witnessed a marked upswing in investment. Several multi-billion-dollar Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) are either secured or on the verge of commitment. Notable projects include the Shell Bonga Project, the Ubeita Non-Associated Gas Project, the HI Gas Project, and the Zabazaba-Etan Field, which alone is anticipated to unlock $10.38 billion. These developments signify a positive shift in the industry’s trajectory, further solidifying the 10 million bpd supply opportunity.
Further illustrating progress, the NUPRC approved 48 Field Development Plans (FDPs) in 2024 alone, a key indicator of advancement within the oil and gas sector. The PIA’s enabling provisions are unlocking new opportunities across the industry. The ongoing licensing round, offering 50 blocks and attracting participation from 300 companies, is slated for conclusion in the third quarter of 2026. Additionally, another bid round is scheduled to commence before the end of 2025, underscoring the immense opportunities present in the region.
To support prospective bidders, the NUPRC is augmenting its National Data Repository. This enhancement includes acquiring large-scale 2D and 3D seismic data through multi-client partnerships. The repository is also being upgraded with advanced analytics capabilities, incorporating artificial intelligence to expedite processes and ensure that acquired assets are brought to market promptly.
Eyesan underscored that Africa’s energy challenge lies more in infrastructure and capital rather than in resources. She noted that during the initial discussions on energy transition, Africa faced challenges due to a lack of investment and infrastructure. She extended an invitation to investors, assuring them of a swift return on their investments in the African oil and gas industry. Nigeria’s experience under the PIA serves as a testament to what is achievable when the right regulatory environment is in place, highlighting the vast 10 million bpd supply potential waiting to be tapped.
