The country has been actively pursuing alternative energy procurement channels after shipments from the Middle East were affected by US and Israeli attacks on Iran, which led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, an essential route for much of Asia’s energy trade. As Southeast Asia’s largest economy, Indonesia relies heavily on imports, with approximately 60 percent of its fuel requirements sourced externally. Around 20 percent of its imported oil and LPG originates from the Middle East, highlighting the urgency behind expanding energy cooperation with other partners.

During the Moscow meeting, Prabowo and Putin explored opportunities to deepen economic and energy cooperation while addressing uncertainties arising from the war on Iran. In addition to energy-related discussions, both sides agreed to advance collaboration in technology research and agriculture, alongside exploring further investment prospects in Indonesia’s industrial sector. Indonesia’s Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia emphasized that Prabowo’s visit formed part of Indonesia’s actions to bolster energy diplomacy to stabilize domestic supplies amid global supply disruptions.

Despite rising fuel prices across several Asian markets as a result of the Middle East conflict, Indonesia has managed to maintain price stability for its consumers. As part of broader preventive measures to manage the global supply crisis, the government has introduced a policy designating Fridays as a remote workday for civil servants starting this month. At the same time, Indonesia has diversified its import sources, securing fuel supplies from countries including Nigeria, Angola and Brazil since the onset of the war on Iran.

The broader geopolitical backdrop also shaped the discussions, with Prabowo consulting Putin on the “global geopolitical situation” during the visit. These engagements reflect Indonesia’s strategic approach to navigating global uncertainties while reinforcing energy cooperation and ensuring the resilience of its domestic energy system.

The ongoing conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran has significantly disrupted global energy flows, particularly following the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This chokepoint has long been critical for oil shipments, and its shutdown has triggered a sharp supply squeeze across Asia. Refiners across the region are now under pressure to secure alternative sources of crude and refined products. In this context, Russian oil has become a viable option, as Washington’s waivers allow access to cargoes loaded before March 12. The policy move is aimed at stabilising global oil markets, although it has also drawn criticism for indirectly supporting Moscow’s revenues. At the same time, efforts to bring Iranian barrels back into circulation have seen limited traction, with buyers remaining cautious.

In South Korea, the situation remains uncertain as companies assess whether additional purchases can be completed within the waiver deadline. According to local broadcaster YTN, citing an official from the Industry Ministry, unloading and payment for Russian crude and naphtha must be finalised by 11th April 2026, when the waiver expires. Naphtha, widely used as a feedstock in petrochemical production and gasoline blending, remains an essential input for the country’s industrial sector. Elsewhere, Japan is also weighing its options as the conflict persists. While any move toward Russian oil would involve diplomatic considerations, the country continues to require steady supplies of crude and petrochemical feedstocks and already maintains imports of Russian liquefied natural gas.

Prior to the introduction of these waivers, purchases of Russian oil in Asia were largely concentrated among Indian refiners and independent processors in China. Concerns over potential restrictions tied to the US financial system had deterred other buyers. Even now, India and China remain dominant importers, with India expected to take about 60 million barrels this month, while Russian supplies have accounted for a growing share of China’s crude intake this year.

The LNG supply agreement highlights a broader transformation underway across global LNG markets, where flexibility is becoming a central priority. Venture Global is leveraging its integrated model covering production, shipping, and regasification to provide a range of contract durations, while Vitol continues to expand its reach as a major LNG trader. For Venture Global, the agreement adds to its growing portfolio of contracted volumes as it advances key Louisiana-based projects, including Calcasieu Pass, Plaquemines LNG, and the proposed CP2 LNG facility. The company’s capacity now exceeds 100 MTPA across assets that are operational, under construction, or in development. For Vitol, which delivered 23 million metric tonnes of LNG in 2025, the LNG supply agreement enhances supply flexibility as it builds a diverse portfolio of contracts to serve customers across Europe, Asia, and emerging markets.

The timing of this LNG supply agreement aligns with structurally increasing global demand, driven by energy security concerns, coal-to-gas transitions, and disruptions in pipeline gas flows particularly in Europe following Russia’s reduced exports. Buyers are increasingly prioritizing flexibility over long-term commitments, creating opportunities for U.S. exporters offering destination-flexible cargoes and Henry Hub-linked pricing. Venture Global’s strategy of modular construction and portfolio-based supply positions it distinctly from traditional LNG developers that rely on long-term, project-specific agreements. Meanwhile, Vitol’s trading model enables it to capitalize on regional price differences and optimize cargo movements, reinforcing the value of flexible supply contracts.

The availability of gas volumes for the region has recently declined as the ripple effects of conflict in the Middle East spread through global energy markets. Transnistria’s economic development ministry acknowledged the situation, stating: “In connection with events in the Middle East, there have been critical disruptions in gas supplies,” and adding that “Sharp cuts in gas volumes have led to limits on usage for commercial purposes or thermal heating.” The same report cited the speaker of Moldova’s parliament as saying that Transnistria only had gas for several days. The tightening supply environment reflects broader pressures in Europe, where natural gas prices have surged dramatically. Prices have doubled in less than a week, with the The Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark intraday contract topping 60 euros per megawatt-hour earlier this week.

The spike in prices followed Iranian strikes on Qatari LNG production facilities, prompting QatarEnergy to shut down its entire LNG production system. Shortly afterward, the company declared force majeure on LNG exports. Because Qatar accounts for roughly a fifth of global LNG flows, the disruption immediately affected markets and intensified the European gas supply crunch. Europe remains particularly exposed to such supply shocks. Since reducing reliance on Russian pipeline gas, the European Union has turned increasingly to seaborne LNG imports, with Qatar among its largest suppliers. Although some observers point to abundant American liquefied gas supplies, those volumes are unlikely to be sold at prices favorable to buyers. With Qatar’s LNG production suspension, control of the liquefied gas market has shifted firmly toward sellers, raising the prospect of further price pressure for European importers.

Smaller EU members and countries such as Moldova face especially acute vulnerability during an European gas supply crunch because their economies have less financial flexibility to manage higher energy costs. Yet the potential impact could be equally severe for larger economies like Germany, which forms a central pillar of the European Union and whose industrial sector relies heavily on stable energy supply. Moldova itself aims to join the bloc by 2030, making regional energy stability increasingly important. Qatar supplies between 12% and 14% of the European Union’s natural gas. Even with lower direct dependence, Europe remains exposed to price shocks and supply disruptions across the LNG market, meaning the current European gas supply crunch could reverberate across the continent from Transnistria to the UK.

The fact is that buying $15 billion of US energy pledge, which is a part of a forecasted $33 billion in US goods purchases that has been promised by Jakarta, goes on to include $3.5 billion of LPG and $4.5 billion when it comes to crude oil, as well as $7 billion of gasoline, as per the agreement that was released on February 19, 2026, by the Office of the US Trade Representative.

Apparently, at a press conference following the announcement, Bahlil Lahadalia, the energy and mineral resources minister of Indonesia, said that the deal is going to cut imports from its neighbors.

Lahadalia said that “the $15 billion we have allocated to buy energy from the United States does not mean we are increasing imports. We are shifting import volumes from several countries, and the biggest portion will likely come from Southeast Asia, followed by the Middle East and Africa.”

Lahadalia remarked that the procurement mechanism is indeed going to take economic considerations into account so as to make sure of a mutual benefit for both Indonesia as well as the US, and hence described it as a win-win.

Interestingly, the LPG imports of Indonesia averaged around 241,900 barrels per day in 2025, which includes 166,100 b/d from the US, confirming the data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea. The total crude as well as condensate imports touched at around 380,500 b/d in 2025, with 15,100 b/d from the US.

Platts, which is a part of S&P Global Energy, evaluated AGS, which is the value for barrels of West Texas Intermediate Midland crude that’s loaded on a free-on-board basis at $67.51/b on February 19, 2026.

It is well to be noted that Indonesia happens to be structurally dependent on gasoline imports and has received 268,700 b/d of gasoline in 2025 alone, with Singapore as well as Malaysia being its top suppliers. Interestingly, US-origin gasoline volumes to Indonesia were pretty low that year.

The government is going to assign Pertamina, the state energy firm in order to carry out the imports, confirmed Lahadalia. Details pertaining to the scale of supply shifts from the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Africa are going to be set within three weeks, whereas the $15 billion US energy spending commitment is indeed final, he confirmed.

The president director of Pertamina, Simon Aloysius Mantiri, who also happened to be present at the press conference, remarked that the state-owned company goes on to view the new import scheme as a move towards energy self-sufficiency. It is estimated that around 57% of the current LPG imports of Pertamina come from the US, and that share could as well rise to 70%, he added.

When it comes to crude oil and, along with it, other products, discussions along with the US partners are still ongoing, Mantiri remarked, adding that finalization of the deal is most likely going to take place within 90 days of the agreement getting signed.

One of the Singapore-based market participants said that the transition towards US supply could also alter the sourcing patterns that are already established from the Middle East and, along with it, regional hubs like Singapore; however, the final effect is going to depend on the implementation details, in addition to the contract duration and schedules for delivery.

Mantiri further said that “the planned energy imports from the United States will be carried out on a business-as-usual basis, through open and transparent tender and bidding processes, without any direct appointments. Supply diversification will be pursued to safeguard energy security and secure the most competitive prices.”

It is worth noting that Pertamina initiated memorandums of understanding – MoU in July 2025 with many prospective US partners, including the likes of ExxonMobil, KDT Global Resources, and Chevron, says Mantiri.

Apart from buying the US-origin goods, Indonesia also went on to agree to grant permission and support the US investment when it comes to exploration, refining, and processing, as well as transportation pertaining to energy resources and critical minerals, with possible funding assistance from US institutions.

Jakarta, on the other hand, has also agreed not to have any restrictions on imports of US bioethanol and outlined plans so as to introduce E5 fuel blending by 2028 and also E10 by 2030, with a possibility of E20 depending upon the infrastructure readiness.

The Upstream Push

Apart from this, when it came to the upstream front, Lahadalia remarked that the government plans to extend the ExxonMobil-operated Cepu Block contract till 2055, with another set of investments of almost $10 billion. Numerous technical issues, which include the cost recovery scheme, are getting ready, and production is at present 170,000-185,000 b/d, Lahadalia confirmed.

Notably, the Cepu Block exploration contract is due to expire in 2035. ExxonMobil went on to first discover the Banyu Urip field located in East Java, having reserves of almost 450 million barrels.

Mantiri confirmed that Pertamina had also inked an agreement with Halliburton pertaining to oilfield recovery at mature domestic fields that are experiencing natural production reductions.

The fact is that Indonesia has indeed struggled to raise its crude output after years without any sort of major new discoveries. The country produced around 605,300 b/d of crude oil in 2025 and is now targeting 610,000 b/d in 2026, reports Platts.

And then there are authorities who have also said that they plan to reactivate idle wells and push exploration across the eastern part of Indonesia by way of more attractive terms.

Tariff Barriers

Also, the bilateral deal is going to see Indonesia eradicate tariffs on more than 99% of US products, while on the other hand, the US is going to maintain a 19% reciprocal tariff when it comes to imports from Indonesia; however, certain textiles as well as apparel goods are going to have a 0% tariff rate.

The US, at present, has its 15th-largest goods trade deficit with Indonesia, which totals $23.7 billion in 2025.

As per the statement from the White House, President Trump has gone on to deliver a forward-looking and expansive trade deal in one of the biggest markets in Southeast Asia, and it is going to be benefiting American workers, exporters, and farmers, as well as digital innovators.

Jakarta, ahead of Prabowo Subianto, the Indonesian president’s meeting with Trump so as to finalize the trade agreement, went on to announce that both Indonesian and US companies have inked around 11 deals of $38.4 billion on February 18, 2026, that take into account mining, agribusiness, energy, textiles, and furniture, as well as technology verticals.

Apparently, Trump visited Japan and held bilateral talks along with Takaichi as well as other top Japanese officials. The two leaders did praise a new golden age when it comes to the ever-growing U.S.-Japan Alliance and also inked a framework agreement so as to support the mining and processing of critical minerals as well as rare earths as they look forward to countering the dominance of China in the industry.

But before the summit, the U.S. asked Japan to decrease and eventually cut off its imports of Russian energy.

The issue to ban LNG imports from Russia came up during the meeting between the U.S. president and Japan’s prime minister, with the latter seeking understanding from the U.S. administration on Japanese energy security, as per the sources from Reuters.

It is well to be noted that Japan goes on to import Russian LNG from the Sakhalin-2 project, where the Japanese firms like Mitsui as well as Mitsubishi hold minority stakes, which they went on to keep even after Russia’s war with Ukraine. This was due to the significance of LNG supply for Japan.

Apparently, the Russian LNG comprises almost 9% of the total liquefied natural gas imports to Japan.

Interestingly, on the eve of Trump’s visit to Japan, the U.S. went on to reiterate calls on its allies, which included the likes of Japan too, to go ahead and stop importing energy products from Russia.

Japan went on to respond that it would go ahead and base any sort of decisions pertaining to energy imports upon its national interests, following the suggestions coming from the Trump Administration that Japan go ahead and suspend all Russian oil and gas purchases.

The fact is that the Trump administration has begun a pressure campaign against all the large importers when it comes to Russian hydrocarbons on the grounds that when depriving Russia of energy exports, the revenues would also get reduced, and hence there will be a dip in their financial means, which is helping them to fight the Ukrainian forces.

Shortly after Abaxx Exchange joined forces with Qingdao International Energy Exchange from China to look into a strategic cross-border partnership in the LNG market, the Singaporean player went on to disclose its intention to go ahead and also explore a collaboration pertaining to LNG procurement and trading with Zhonggong.

This sort of collaboration is expected to connect the growing infrastructure footprint of the Chinese firm in Shandong and Yunnan, thereby representing $640 million when it comes to strategic LNG investments along with the international supplier network as well as market information services and trading infrastructure of Abaxx Exchange.

Apparently, the Asian duo is also pooling resources so as to support a dependable LNG procurement, enhance the access when it comes to transparent pricing as well as risk management tools, and make the logistics connectivity between international suppliers and demand centers based in China more robust.

The CEO of Abaxx Exchange, Nancy Seah, underscored that the LNG demand growth in China is indeed reshaping the global trade flows, and investments in Shandong and Yunnan from Zhonggong highlight the significance of developing dependable new demand centers.

She added that Abaxx Exchange has gone on to build the regulated marketplace and at the same time physically backed forward curve that is required to connect partners such as Zhonggong with international supply, therefore supporting better price discovery as well as stronger market access when it comes to LNG participants.

This partnership, hence, is anticipated to facilitate LNG procurement through establishing procurement channels in order to connect the infrastructure projects from Zhonggong in Shandong as well as Yunnan with the overseas LNG imports, delivered by way of domestic ports via purchases that are facilitated on the Abaxx Exchange based in Singapore.

Apparently, the collaboration is going to bring with it LNG price discovery as well as risk management through offering access to the trading infrastructure and market data as well as the risk management tools of Abaxx so as to manage the volatility of the market and also support commercial decision-making that is efficient.

It is worth noting that the duo is also going to work on logistics as well as a cooperation framework by way of making the logistics coordination as well as market connectivity within China more robust so as to support the delivery along with the distribution of LNG, with more opportunities so as to further the collaboration with time.

The Chief Executive Officer at Zhonggong Petroleum & Natural Gas, Zhang Huanran, stressed the fact that as they expand their LNG infrastructure across Shandong and Yunnan, collaborating with Abaxx Exchange helps to connect to a regulated global marketplace with just physically backed LNG forward curve trading.

By way of this cooperation, they are indeed focused on securing a balanced and high-quality LNG supply in order to support the growth of their operations and, at the same time, to advance more efficient as well as lower-carbon energy solutions.

The agreement is an indication of Egypt’s desperation for gas due to rise in domestic demand and declining output from its own fields. Although the long-term contract is cheaper than the prices of natural gas deal of $35 billion obtainable in the short-term global market, it questions Egypt’s desire to resume its role as a fuel exporter.

Leviathan operators signed an agreement to send 130 billion cubic meters of gas to Egypt between 2026 and 2040, Israel’s NewMed Energy LP, a partner in the project stated. The value of the export contract is approximately $35 billion, making it Israel’s biggest ever, it said.

Egypt became a net importer of gas in 2024 and has been importing huge amounts of liquefied natural gas since, making deals for deliveries through 2028. The added Israeli flows could allow Cairo to import fewer LNGs in the future than it otherwise would have had to.

The gas field currently has a deal to send approximately 4.5 billion cubic meters a year to Egypt, which will increase in stages beginning next year and potentially as much as 12.5 billion cubic meters a year by 2033. Egypt also bought 2.5 billion cubic meters in the short-term market last year, a volume that can vary from one year to the next.

Importing LNG has also raised Egypt’s overall costs because the super-chilled fuel costs more than twice as much as pipeline gas from Israel.

“This is a win-win for both sides. It means tremendous savings to the Egyptian market vis-a-vis LNG imports — it’s 50% down on the current LNG import market,” NewMed CEO Yossi Abu said in an interview. “It provides security of energy supply for many, many years to come to feed the growth of the Egyptian economy.”

Although Leviathan’s gas is more economical, the interruption of flows from Israel to Egypt due to the war with Iran in June threatened potential weaknesses in the supply chain. The disruption compelled Cairo to suspend supplies to certain industries such as fertilizer producers.

According to the new agreement, a natural gas deal of $35 billion will be delivered to buyer Blue Ocean Energy over 14 years with payments determined by a formula based on the price of Brent crude oil.

During the initial phase of the agreement, which will come into effect next year, 20 billion cubic meters of gas will be delivered to Egypt. The second phase, with a capacity of about 110 billion cubic meters, involves the completion of the Leviathan expansion project and development of a new pipeline from Israel to Egypt through Nitzana.

NewMed’s shares increased up to 6.4% in Tel Aviv, the largest intraday climb since Feb 4. NewMed owns a 45.34% interest in Leviathan together with Chevron Corp. with 39.66% and Ratio Energies LP with 15%.

Futures fell 1.7% in New York after closing above $34 a barrel for the first time since March. Moscow wants to scale back curbs in line with the OPEC+ deal, according to people familiar with the matter, but a Kremlin spokesman said that Russia would analyze the market before making a decision. Meanwhile, U.S.-China relations have deteriorated further as Washington considered sanctions to punish Beijing for its crackdown on Hong Kong.

At the same time, the outlook for the physical oil market continued to improve. Nigeria and Algeria have lifted the official selling prices for their crude, a sign that they believe customers are willing to pay more for their barrels, while U.S. stockpiles are expected to extend declines.

Supply cuts and the recovery of demand in some countries following the easing of lockdown restrictions has led to oil surging about 80% this month after slumping below zero in April. However, U.S. gasoline consumption was muted over the Memorial Day weekend — typically the peak period for American fuel demand — signaling the global rebound is likely to be slow and uncertain.

OPEC and its allies agreed to reduce output by almost 10 million barrels a day from the start of May in an effort to drain a worldwide glut. As part of that deal, cuts would slowly taper from July. Three Russian officials and two people in the industry, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the nation’s position is to stick to that plan. OPEC+ is scheduled to gather again next month.

“With the approach of the next OPEC+ meeting on June 9, attention is back on how the Russia-Saudi ideological divide plays out in their supply management strategy for the second half of the year,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. The market may view an easing of production cuts from July as premature, she said.

The U.S. Treasury Department could impose controls on transactions and freeze assets of Chinese officials and businesses for implementing a new national security law in Hong Kong, according to people familiar with the matter. The Trump administration is weighing whether to declare the former British colony has lost its autonomy from Beijing.

U.S. crude inventories probably fell by 2.5 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg survey. If confirmed by government data on Thursday, that would be the third consecutive weekly draw. The fragile nature of the recovery in America was on display over the Memorial Day weekend, with gasoline demand dropping an estimated 25% to 35% from a year earlier.

This project was launched in April 2017 and is the first in a series of three at the complex. More than $300 million are being invested to expand polyethylene production capacity by 50% to 1.1 million tons per year by the end of 2019, and nearly $500 million are being invested to increase polypropylene production capacity by close to 60% to 1.1 million tons per year by 2021.

The three projects take advantage of abundant, cost-advantaged propane feed stock from the shale gas revolution in the United States. With these investments, the Daesan facility will be in a position to capture margins across the ethylene-polyethylene and propylene-polypropylene value chains. The additional production capacity will help meet rapidly growing Asian demand.

“These investments and today’s successful start-up of the first project reflect our strategy of meeting growing global demand for petrochemicals by channeling our investments into our world-class complexes and leveraging cost-advantaged feedstock” said Bernard Pinatel, President, Refining & Chemicals, Total.

Total and end-of-life of Plastics

Total’s ambition is to become the responsible energy major by 2035.

Plastics enhance consumers’ quality of life, and their lighter weight leaves a smaller carbon footprint. Nevertheless, as a producer, Total exercises the utmost vigilance when managing end-of-life of plastics, because discarded plastic waste is environmentally unacceptable.

Total is a founding member of The Alliance to End Plastic Waste, an organization that brings together around 40 member companies from across the plastics and consumer goods value chain. They have committed over $1 billion, with the ultimate goal of investing $1.5 billion, over the next five years to provide solutions to eliminate plastic pollution in the environment, particularly the oceans.

Total is working on all forms of recycling to develop high-performance recycled polymers. For example, the company produces, through its affiliate Synova, a range of recycled polypropylene products that meets the highest quality standards of original equipment manufacturers and automakers. It has also developed an innovative polystyrene recycling technology and is currently conducting proof of concept for every aspect of large-scale production. Total is a global leader in bioplastics. The Total Corbion PLA joint venture owns a plant in Thailand with a capacity of 75,000 tons per year of polylactic acid (PLA), a 100% biobased bioplastic that is recyclable and biodegradable.

About the Daesan Refining and Petrochemical Complex

Daesan is one of Total’s six world-class integrated complexes and a strategic asset for both shareholders. It comprises a flexible condensate splitter, a competitive steam cracker and units producing polymers, styrene and aromatics.

About Hanwha

Hanwha Group, founded in 1952, is a global leader in a broad range of business spanning the spectrum of manufacturing, construction, finance, services and leisure industries. Hanwha Group consists of 76 domestic affiliates and 351 global networks, as of December 2018.

About Total

Total is a major energy player that produces and markets fuels, natural gas and low-carbon electricity. Our 100,000 employees are committed to better energy that is safer, more affordable, cleaner and accessible to as many people as possible. Active in more than 130 countries, our ambition is to become the responsible energy major.